A long time ago, I wrote on this topic, and now I write again because I have new insights.

Perhaps many people will clamor that there is no bull market, and that this market is just a scam scene.

Venting emotions on the Internet is worthless and meaningless.

As for the bull market, it will come naturally when it's time, because the cycle of bull and bear markets is inevitable.

It's like the principle that after falling too much, the market will inevitably rise, and after rising too much, it will naturally fall.

When the market falls to a point where it is undervalued, the foundation for a bull market is laid, and when it rises to a point where there is a bubble everywhere, the bear market begins.

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The last bull market was from 2019 to 2021, and this phenomenon was particularly obvious.

From Moutai, which was undervalued at a price-to-earnings ratio of more than ten times, to Moutai at a ratio of more than seventy times, the serious bubble indicated the end of a bull market cycle.

The bull market before that was in 2015, focusing on the ChiNext board, where the price-to-earnings ratio of the entire sector reached more than 100 times.

The cycle of the market itself is just like this: it falls to a point where it is extremely cheap and unwanted, and rises to a point where people chase it to the ceiling.You think there is no bull market because the market hasn't bottomed out yet, that's all.

In 2005, 2008, 2013, 2018, including 2024, everyone's experiences and feelings are exactly the same.

It's as if the bear market will never end and the bull market will never come.

As long as the holding period of the stock is a bit longer, it is like taking an elevator, which is to lose money and cut the flesh and leave.

If you want to make money in the stock market, you can only speculate on the short line and find hot spots.

In a bear market, what you need to do is to save your life, and this bear market thinking and trading model is completely correct.

But what about when the bull market comes?

Are you still going to continue to speculate on the short line, grab hot spots, enter today, and leave tomorrow.

If the bull and bear markets are the same set of trading strategies, and are all chasing the rise and killing the fall, then 2500 points and 3500 points are of no value to you, because they are all the same.

If you can make money under this situation, it can only be said to be a trading genius.Because it has already surpassed the vast majority of algorithmic trading, it can make profits in the complex human capital market.

The number of people who can achieve this situation is very few, almost none.

There are some retail investors who may have achieved this method of making money in trading at a certain stage.

But as the capital volume increases and the market changes, the strategy will fail.

When your capital volume is large, buying a stock will gradually affect the direction of the stock and become the target of the main force.

Or, the investment targets you can choose will become fewer and fewer, and the difficulty of trading will become greater and greater.

This essence is because the trading strategies of bull and bear markets are inherently different, and should not be the same.

One is a market of stock game, and the other is a market of incremental entry.

Therefore, from the perspective of thinking and strategy, it is necessary to distinguish between bear and bull markets.

The bear market thinking can't really make much money in the bull market, because the bull market is also slaughtering those investors who chase the rise and kill the fall.Since different stages require different strategies, what kind of strategy should be adopted in the current market?

In fact, it is not difficult to see that the market is currently in the late bear and early bull phase.

If we must talk about bears and bulls, it is at the end of the bear market and has not yet truly entered the bull market phase.

Many people do not understand what the end of a bear market is like.

First, understand the characteristics of the late bear and early bull phase, and then think about what to do during this stage.

1. The late bear and early bull phase is often characterized by alternating rises and falls, forming a bottom through fluctuations.

Another feature of the late bear and early bull phase is that it makes you feel as if the bear market has not yet passed, and as if the bull market has already arrived.

This stage can be said to be a back-and-forth process, with several phases to go through.

Most bottoms often have a second retest, washing back and forth within a certain range.This is just like the period from January to February, when many people believe it is a bear market, and from March to May, they think it is a bull market, but in June, they believe it is still a bear market.

These are all normal phenomena, and each previous bottom has been more or less the same.

Moreover, only fluctuations can cause the bottom chips to become loose. In the alternation of bull and bear markets, some people's beliefs collapse, and they finally hand over the chips obediently.

2. At the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market, there is often a contradiction and differentiation in the form of a reduced volume of consolidation.

The contradiction and differentiation mainly come from the reduced volume at the end of the bear market.

At the end of a bear market, there is not much game playing, and reduced volume is the main theme.

The reason for the reduced volume is that the bulls have already locked in the chips, and the bears have nothing to vent.

It seems that the index is still falling, but in fact, the floating chips are getting less and less.

Accurate bottom fishing does not actually exist, and more is the absorption of chips repeatedly within the bottom range.

This stage is very slow, and the bottom range must have a time period of at least half a year.The so-called V-shaped bottom is non-existent. Even in the case of a rounded bottom, most of the time it is a slow rise, with few instances of a rapid departure from the bottom.

3. At the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market, it is often the blue-chip stocks that stabilize, while the junk stocks experience a desperate sell-off.

At the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market, there is no increase in volume.

The real incremental capital enters the market during a bull market, not at the end of a bear market by trying to bottom-fish.

The only ones who can truly bottom-fish are the mysterious funds, because the chips must be given to them, not to those civilian bottom-fishing brigades.

And these mysterious funds will only bottom-fish for blue-chip stocks, not small-cap stocks, let alone any junk stocks.

The market is divided in that the index seems to no longer fall, but individual stocks continue to be sold off, falling to the point of heartbreak.

This is a standard situation at the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market.

The bearish aspect is that small-cap stocks are still searching for a bottom, while the bullish aspect is that the large blue-chip stocks have already completed their base building.Translate the following passage into English:

Viewing the current market with a bull market mindset, the task at hand is relatively simple: try to acquire cheap chips at the lowest possible price.

How do you get cheap chips? You wait for them.

So, the strategy for now is actually to wait.

To be more specific, it's about buying on dips and selling on rises, specifically targeting blue-chip stocks for this strategy.

Compared to some people who are still looking for hot spots and short-term opportunities.

They are seeking small opportunities, while you are looking for big opportunities.

Short-term opportunities are cyclical, they change, and they require daily homework and market monitoring, but at the end of a bear market, it should actually be about picking up chips and then winning by doing nothing.

One is an opportunity that can be seized at any time.

The other is an opportunity that comes once every few years.

However, acquiring cheap chips has its rules and tricks.In stock selection, it is essential to choose blue-chip stocks with stable long-term performance. When purchasing, it is crucial to build positions in batches, and even consider establishing positions on the right side of the market.

Avoid the temptation to bottom-fish, and refrain from hastily determining market bottoms, as this can often lead to mistakes in a bear market.

If you miss the first market bottom, be patient and wait for the second bottom to appear, then make a second purchase.

The most critical aspect of a bull market mindset is not about buying at the lowest possible price, but about the ability to hold positions over a long period.

In other words, it is about whether you can seize the opportunity to buy truly good stocks at the right price and at the right time at the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market.