The nearly two-month suffocating market trend is coming to an end.

Yet the market is still filled with a sense of despair.

People used to like to say, "When others are afraid, I am greedy."

But now, the market is more about despair than fear.

Despite the market's deliberate control over the pace of decline, it took two months to fall by more than 200 points, but the endless green fields every day, coupled with more than 4,000 declines, make people feel hopeless about the market.

Some people say that every day they open their phones, take a look, and then silently close them, shedding tears.

But not everyone is moving forward in despair; there are also some people who are greedily collecting bloody chips.

Retail investors definitely can't feel it because those who hold the chips will not voluntarily confess to retail investors.

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Only when the market's bottom comes out and then rises rapidly continuously, will many people react and realize that their chips have been deceived.

The weakness you see is not really weak, and the strength you see is not really strong.How to understand this sentence?

In fact, what is being looked at is the trading volume.

When the market falls into a situation of reduced trading volume, the illusory things also increase.

Because the trading volume needed to drive the rise and fall is getting smaller and smaller.

Just think about it, in despair, every day there are people who stop loss and leave the market, and there are very few who dare to buy, so where did this part of the chips go?

That's right, into the pockets of these greedy people.

There will definitely be someone who will ask, how can it be seen?

There will also be someone who will ask, when to judge is on the way down, and when to judge is in the process of building the bottom?

These two questions are actually the key and core.

How does the main force snatch the chips from your hand, and when did it start?

(Note: The translation is provided with the understanding that the original text seems to be discussing stock market dynamics, but without more context, some phrases may not have a direct equivalent in English financial terminology.)To understand these, one must first understand the main force's trading techniques.

The decline usually has two stages, or it can be simply and crudely called the first half and the second half.

The first half, the main force's selling period.

The decline in the first half is based on the previous high point.

In this period of decline, the main force is still mainly selling, while most retail investors are mainly replenishing their positions.

Because just after the high point, many retail investors will think that it is still in the rising trend, there will be support.

Therefore, the support position has become the price at which the main force runs away, and has become the position where retail investors replenish their positions.

At this stage, all short selling is the main force's smashing of the plate, and it is likely that the more it falls, the more volume it will increase.

As long as the market starts to decline, the overall volume will shrink, but it will not shrink too much.

The so-called volume increase refers to the acceleration of the decline, there will be a large number of chips pouring out.So, during the first half of the decline, the market's trading volume won't shrink much, as the main force still needs to use cover to sell out.

Retail investors can also easily exhaust their last bullets, fully loaded at a position above the halfway point.

In the second half, it's the main force's period for stockpiling.

When the decline reaches the second half, the main force begins to stock up.

The stockpiling phase is very lengthy.

In the first stage of stockpiling, they will passively buy some chips.

But these purchased chips are actually used to further smash the market.

Of course, they can also choose not to buy chips and directly short sell in the second half to smash the market, the effect is almost the same.

The reason for smashing the market here is actually to destroy the confidence of retail investors.

Once the halfway point is broken, retail investors without bullets will definitely be passive, and the psychological pressure will be particularly great.At this point, which is the latter half, the focus is primarily on digging a pit.

During the decline, one passively buys some chips, and does so unconsciously.

Each round of selling off has a huge impact on the mentality of retail investors, and it also forces panic chips to come out.

At the end of the decline, the market will shrink to the extreme because there is no more to cut, and everyone has laid flat.

The main force will patiently erode the last chips through a volume contraction and slow decline, until no more chips appear.

The so-called despair is when you think there is no hope for this market, and when you are cursing and no longer willing to open your account to look, that's when the bottom is reached.

Because no one is cutting meat anymore, and there is no point in further suppressing the stock price.

Even when there is despair, and there is only a mess to deal with, the market will usher in the rebound it deserves.

Of course, sometimes there will be an increase in volume, because some private equity, some financing positions, passively explode the warehouse and clear the warehouse.The second question, how to find this critical point, and how to see if the main force is passively accumulating shares.

In fact, there is no particularly good answer to this question.

But in practice, it can be reflected through many dimensions, or technical indicators.

Here are three main criteria I use to judge that the market has reached the end of a downtrend.

First, the time cycle.

The end of a downtrend can be determined by the time cycle.

In simple terms, during a decline, if there is no decent rebound, it is counted as a time cycle.

The longer the time cycle of a decline, the greater the rebound at the stage bottom.

Generally speaking, if there is no rebound, if the decline cycle exceeds 20 trading days, it is considered a long cycle.

If it reaches 30 trading days, it is at the end of the downtrend.Even during the sharp decline of 2008, there would still be a rebound every 1-2 months.

The time cycle is regular because when the fall is too much, the momentum of short selling will naturally weaken, and the opportunity will come.

Second, the index becomes dull.

The dullness of the index is actually easy to understand, referring to the situation where the index starts to flatten under certain circumstances.

The most common is when the stock price is falling, and the index line no longer goes down.

The most common dullness of the index is the bottom divergence.

This situation is very common at the end of the fall and is also a very clear signal.

This index signal indicates that the momentum of the fall is weakening, and the market is approaching a critical point.

At this time, as long as the bullish side wants to lift, the situation is very easy to reverse.

Third, the volume shrinks.The last dimension, which is the most commonly mentioned, is that the volume sees the price at the bottom.

At the end of the market's decline, the volume is mostly reduced.

However, a reduction in volume does not necessarily mean the bottom is immediately seen, and there may still be a period of slow decline.

If the main force is ruthless enough, at the end of the decline, there may be another round of panic selling, and the volume will slightly increase.

Volume shrinkage is an abstract concept, because after the volume shrinks, it can still shrink.

Therefore, it can only be judged that the volume shrinkage has entered the latter half of the decline, and it cannot directly point to a phased low point.

All analytical dimensions can help determine where the end of the decline cycle is, and this place must also be a key stage for the main force to accumulate chips.

Just as it was judged a while ago that the low point of 2904, starting to call for building positions 1-2 trading days in advance, is the same principle.

No one can accurately bottom out, but they can start to be greedy at some specific times.

When the market moves forward in despair every day, the low point of emotions appears, and the dawn of the rebound is naturally approaching.The market will always offer a sweet treat only after everyone has despaired, but whether this treat is a remedy or poison, one must judge for themselves.