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Trading method: How to chase falls and kill rises.

24 Comments 2024-05-26

As previously mentioned, the current market is more suitable for buying dips and selling rallies, rather than buying rallies and selling dips.

Most people should understand the principle, but it is very difficult to execute.

Because buying rallies and selling dips aligns with human nature, most investors believe only what they see.

When a stock rises, they believe that there is a main force of capital operating in the stock, and when the stock falls, the main force may have already fled.

Buying dips and selling rallies means overcoming greed and fear, and making money in a counter-intuitive trading logic.

In fact, this is not the key point. The key point is that if buying dips goes wrong and encounters a stock that continues to fall, it may face serious losses.

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Many people say that they do not buy stocks in a downtrend, otherwise they will be doomed.

This statement is completely correct and also indicates that the difficulty of buying dips and selling rallies is actually very high.

First, we need to correct a point, that is, buying dips and selling rallies is completely different from buying stocks in a downtrend.

Buying stocks in a downtrend is mostly about over-sold rebound.The stock buying strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies can be used for oversold rebounds, trend retracements, and box range oscillations.

There is a certain difference between the two.

It can be said that the strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies itself corresponds to more opportunities and buying points.

In the current market, the most suitable opportunities for buying on dips and selling on rallies are actually those in box range oscillations, followed by oversold conditions, and finally trend retracements.

Some people may be curious, theoretically, trend retracements should be the most opportunistic and most certain, so why are they placed last.

Because the proportion of stocks that can form a significant trend in the current market is really too small.

A lot of so-called trend retracements are just a point of distribution for funds after short-term speculation, or a continuation of the decline.

From a safety perspective, the current trend of buying on trend retracements is still relatively risky.

On the contrary, box range oscillations and oversold conditions, the difficulty of these two methods will be relatively smaller.Here is the English translation of the provided text:

Regarding these three ways of buying dips and selling rallies, a brief explanation is also provided.

Firstly, pullback in an uptrend.

The pullback in an uptrend is the most capital-intensive in an incremental market.

This pullback is similar to a washout, where the main force starts to adjust after seeing a lack of follow-up orders in the market and a significant divergence.

At the same time, a large amount of incremental capital is waiting to enter the market when the trend adjusts.

At this time, if the stock price falls back to some key trend line positions, there will be a large amount of capital entering.

A decline that does not break the trend line is a good buying point.

In fact, this mode of buying dips has very little risk, because even after buying, if the trend line is broken, it can be quickly stopped and exited.

The difficulty lies in determining which trend line the decline reaches is the standard buying opportunity.

Usually, the 20-day line, 30-day line, 60-day line, and 10-week line, 20-week line can all be referenced.

(Note: The translation is provided in a manner that is accurate and elegant, using appropriate English expressions and sentence structures to convey the original meaning of the text.)Additionally, it is necessary to combine the trading volume at the previous high points, as well as the increase in stock prices, to judge the level of the top.

If it is a super top, then there may be no retrace, but rather the main force has sold out.

Secondly, the low absorption in the box oscillation.

The low absorption in the box oscillation is suitable for stocks that have been in the box for a long time.

Identifying the box is a relatively large difficulty.

The more easily identifiable boxes are not only in technical form but also in performance expectations.

If a listed company has a stable performance for a long time, and the stock price fluctuates within a certain price range, it is relatively easy to determine the box.

If the rise and fall of the listed company shows a trend, then the so-called box is only temporary.

The safety line for buying stocks at the lower edge of the box is actually quite high, and corresponding stop-loss measures should also be taken.

Usually, the box breaks through with continuous negative lines going down, so the buying point is usually after reaching the lower edge of the box, waiting for the positive line to enter.The pursuit of dips here is not about catching falling knives during the process of decline, but about finding opportunities at the end of the fall, or rather, at the tail end.

Thirdly, the oversold condition in a downward trend.

The last type, which is the most risky, is to find stocks that are oversold in a downward trend.

Oversold rebound is definitely present, but the buying point for an oversold rebound is very difficult to find.

If you enter a bit early, you are directly trapped at the bottom, and every additional day of decline means a day of loss.

For an oversold rebound, there is a good indicator, which is the deviation rate.

When a stock falls suddenly and accelerates, moving far away from the moving average, the deviation rate increases sharply, and this is often a good buying point.

This is because panic selling comes out at this time.

The oversold rebound is mainly an emotional release. After falling too much, a large amount of trapped chips are locked in the warehouse, so the plate is very light and easy to rebound.

If the oversold rebound is with increased volume, it means that there is still a difference in the funds, and the height of the rebound is relatively limited. After the rebound, it will still go down to confirm the effectiveness of the bottom.So, when it comes to a rebound from an oversold condition, it is often about seizing a 1-2 day rise, with the increase generally being 5-10% from the bottom, not a time to engage in a prolonged battle.

Let's talk about how to sell off during a price surge.

Selling off during a price surge refers to the act of selling stocks when they are rising.

It may seem simple, just selling stocks, but in reality, the difficulty of the transaction is not small.

The reason is also very simple, because many times, selling off during a price surge ends up as a missed opportunity, causing endless regret.

Missing out on a good stock at the starting point of a rise is more painful than being stuck in a stock purchase.

In fact, the key to selling off during a price surge is to predict the future increase.

For investors who cannot predict and have no standards, setting a profit target directly is the best way.

For example, my profit target is 10%, and once it reaches this level, I will sell decisively.Because not knowing how to judge the space and extent of an increase, continuing to hold will only increase the risk, and the situation of taking an elevator is still very common.

There is a very simple way, which is to look at the turnover rate.

Most of the main forces need the support of the volume to escape, which is reflected on the plate, and it is actually the turnover rate.

A full turnover means a large number of following plates, which is a necessary condition for the main force to escape.

The increase in volume is a good thing, but if it is too large, it is a bad thing.

A sufficiently large turnover rate is not only the entry of funds, but also represents a difference, representing that the original main force has escaped.

Whenever there is a big Yang line, accompanied by a super high turnover, it is a good opportunity to kill the rise.

The so-called super high turnover can refer to the historical peak of the turnover rate.

Although this method is also difficult to avoid missing the big bull stocks, it is applicable in most cases.

Especially in a weak market, because the following plate is relatively limited, it is difficult to appear a long-term high turnover situation.In fact, there is one thing that must be clearly understood: whether you earn more or less, it is always better than losing money. In a weak market, the first priority is to ensure you do not lose before seeking victory. Do not always think about making a fortune against the trend.

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