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Where is the way forward in the suffocating market.

80 Comments 2024-06-16

Recently in the market, there has been a predominance of negative sentiment.

Although the index is not falling unilaterally and occasionally offers some sweeteners, it cannot alleviate the pressure brought by the entire market.

In terms of sentiment, it is on the verge of collapse.

Coupled with the embellishment of some self-media, the market is shrouded in layers of haze, with no signs of vitality at all.

Some retail investors are already on the brink of collapse.

The reasons for the collapse are also very simple.

Either they are fully invested or they have leveraged.

Under such circumstances, the market naturally becomes suffocating, with "plummeting" every day, and the prospect of recovering losses is far away.

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However, it is regrettable that this situation will continue for a while, at least for several months.

Those accounts that are financed and pledged have already been targeted by the market.Indeed, those who use leverage are basically destined to be completely wiped out.

These are visible chips.

From February to May, the market took a breather, which was actually to extend a lifeline to these margin accounts and some equity pledge accounts.

But many people are completely unaware and continue to walk on a tightrope in the high sky.

Nowadays, with this round of sharp decline, these accounts are bound to explode.

In simple terms, the bloody chips will fall into the market due to the suffocation of these accounts and then be devoured.

If this situation cannot be changed in the short term, is there still a way out for the market?

There must be a way out.

In the case of not being empty, there are only a few ways out.

First, high dividend.High dividend stocks are a good hand in a bear market.

Take the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as an example, it missed the bull market of 2020-2021 and even fell a bit.

But in the bear market of 2023-2024, it went up in a unique way.

The reason is that the dividend rate is high enough, and the funds are very good at avoiding risks.

In the past two years of high dividends, it has never suffocated people. Not only have the dividends been taken to the soft hand, but the stock price has also been rising all the way.

Funds will also gather around high dividends for a period of time until the market hits the bottom.

After the market hits the bottom, dividends will no longer be attractive, because making money from stocks is much faster than receiving dividends.

So, the logic is to look at dividends in a weak market and themes in a strong market.

Second, high growth.

There is another type that can go against the trend and is also a favorite of the market, high growth.At any time, high growth is always right, who would refuse performance?

Some high-growth stocks will be favored by capital.

Because the worse the market situation, the lower the proportion of high-growth stocks, the more popular high growth becomes.

High growth is only very risky at the end of a bull market, because when the performance is realized, the stock price has to face the capital delivery.

In a bear market, when capital is defensively deployed, high growth is often prioritized.

The high prosperity track where high growth is located is the key and core, and also a touch of brightness in the weak market.

Third, broad-based index.

The last kind of risk-avoiding tool is the broad-based index.

The advantage of the broad-based index is that it can withstand, and the decline space is relatively limited.

Where do you let the Shanghai Composite Index fall?Even if it falls back to 2600 points from 3000, that's just over 10%, and there won't be any risk of a margin call.

Buying an index can be held firmly, even with some leverage added.

But when it comes to buying individual stocks, if the index falls from 3000 to 2600, there will be a lot of stocks that are cut in half. What do you hold on to?

Although the index may be a bit weaker when it rises, and the money earned is not much, this is a problem that should be considered when the bull market comes. Now it is still in the bear market, which is completely different.

Therefore, the investment in broad-based index funds is suitable for defensive layout in the bear market.

It's not too late to make adjustments when the bull and bear market turns.

In the near future.

This part of the funds will face an ultimate test, whether to stop loss or wait to be liquidated.

Private equity is mostly net value 0.8, which means it is liquidated when the loss is 20%.The financing plate, mostly at 0.5, which means liquidation occurs at a 50% loss.

There will always be some chips that are passively ceded at a low position, and then the turnover is completed.

In the past, it was the panic plate that was killed, but now it's not panic, but a clear kill looking at your card face.

So here are a few more reasonable suggestions.

First, those with financing, those with leverage, don't hold on hard.

There must be many people in the market who are leveraged and have been holding on hard for a long time.

Once the financing is trapped, especially trapped by 20-30%, it is almost impossible to repay, and it is usually held on hard.

For example, if you have 1 million, finance 1 million, and fall by 30%, it's only 1.4 million left.

At this time, if you pay back, it means that the principal is only 400,000, and the hope of doubling is slim, while the chance of doubling 1.4 million is still very large.

So, most people will hold on hard until the position is blown up.In reality, doing so is definitely wrong, because the risks will increase and the mentality will deteriorate.

A good approach is to reduce positions when there is a rebound, and then repay part of the financing.

Understand one thing clearly: if the market trend really comes, it is the same to finance and buy at that time.

Secondly, those with money should observe more and not buy indiscriminately.

In a shrinking market, buying stocks is no different from giving money away, because there are few opportunities.

Observe more and trade less.

Many people buy stocks casually, so it is normal to be cut by others.

Since you have cash in hand, you will have the initiative in the future and bullets.

In this sluggish market, you must act steadily, ruthlessly, and accurately, rather than casually.

After all, the current market is not a bull market, but a market where there are more falls than rises.Learning to wait and observe is also a part of the practice in the stock market, and as for financing and leverage, they are actually unnecessary to learn.

Thirdly, those who want to bottom-fish can bottom-fish the index, but not individual stocks.

Individual stocks are likely to be miserable this year, and there will definitely be many stocks that will "collapse."

So, if many people want to lay out in advance, don't consider individual stocks, consider the index instead.

Whether the index will break through 2635 is still uncertain, and from this perspective, the actual space for the decline is not as large as imagined.

However, for individual stocks, a drop of 20-30% is quite normal, and it is also quite normal for the financing plate to explode.

Moreover, this year there is a large batch of stocks waiting to be delisted, so bottom-fishing individual stocks is undoubtedly a brave venture into a minefield.

Fourth, smart people are those who enter the market only after the trend has risen.

Don't always think about buying at the lowest point, when the market improves, there will be signs.

At least there will not be no volume, at least it will not be a continuous decline every day.Why not wait until the market has more gains than losses daily, and the trading volume picks up, before looking for opportunities?

Why go against the current and hope to make money in a market that's falling over 4000 points?

It's just a matter of waiting for half a year or a year; spring will always come. When the flowers bloom in spring, those who have more bullets in hand are the real big winners.

Everyone knows it's going to rain, but they don't hurry to find a place to take shelter.

Even if there are difficulties at the moment, such as inconvenient walking or rugged mountain roads, it's better than foolishly staying in place and doing nothing.

Because suffocation is ultimately fatal, and falling too much means losing everything.

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