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A-shares at a global high, chose to be indifferent.

29 Comments 2024-06-17

In the past two years, many people have liked to compare A-shares with the global market, especially the U.S. stock market.

To be honest, don't compare, because you don't know until you compare, and it's quite shocking when you do.

The global market has been advancing vigorously, but only A-shares are the bear market of the world, sluggish and weak.

What kind of hell-level copy is this, allowing the world's largest number of investors to encounter the world's most bearish market.

Suddenly, I think of a sentence, the place with more retail investors is always not very good in the market.

In the stock market, the main force is not willing to speculate on those stocks concentrated by retail investors.

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Because the pressure to lift is very large, if retail investors make money, the main force is very likely to lose money.

These stocks do not rise, but the increase is often relatively small, at least lagging behind the market average.

When it comes to falling, the decline of these stocks is not small, and it is easy to fall to the bottom.

Look at those stocks with many retail investors, most of the time they will not rise, and it is rare to walk independently.Look at those stocks that have plummeted miserably; many of them have a large number of retail investors, and there are very few that have plummeted with a sparse retail presence.

Following this logic, let's also examine the global market; in general, the proportion of retail investors in the markets that are rising is not high.

This basically confirms the reality or truth that the more retail investors there are, the worse the market situation is.

Why does the market situation become worse with more retail investors?

Many people believe that if the market lacks retail investors, the overall activity level will be greatly reduced, even becoming stagnant.

This idea is actually quite naive.

Perhaps the market's activity level has a significant correlation with retail investors.

However, the market's rise and fall have no necessary positive correlation with retail investors, but rather an inverse one.

That is to say, the fewer retail investors there are, the easier it is for the market to rise.In the final analysis, there are several reasons for this.

Firstly, making quick money is always more tempting.

If you are the main capital, with the choice between quick and slow money, which one would you choose?

It is clear that making quick money is easier.

The so-called quick money is the money in the pockets of retail investors.

As long as you can understand the trading mentality of retail investors and then operate in the opposite direction, you can make money.

When the main capital and retail investors become opponents, retail investors are bound to be defeated.

Because the main capital can control the market, retail investors are no match for the main capital.

Plus the support of some small essays, the market hype atmosphere is fueled, which has become the holy land for cutting leeks.

Have you ever thought about what the situation would be like when there are fewer and fewer retail investors?The opponent of the main force naturally becomes the main force itself.

In the game between the main forces, using a little trick is useless, because large funds are very rational.

The main force expects to wash the plate through fluctuations, and the difficulty will increase.

When speculating, the higher the stock price is pulled, the less the follow-up funds, and it is very difficult to sell.

In a mature market, the opportunities to make quick money are naturally becoming fewer and fewer.

Secondly, the main force has no obligation to carry the sedan chair for retail investors.

The main force is not interested in carrying the sedan chair for retail investors.

No main force buys stocks and raises stocks to make money for retail investors.

The so-called rescue market does not exist at all, it is just picking up chips for oneself.

In the game market, buying and selling are for the sake of profit, not for carrying the sedan chair.The stocks with a large number of retail investors become a top priority when the main force needs to consider the pressure of selling during the lifting process.

Although the collective of retail investors is relatively easy to control, once the number increases, they become scattered and unorganized.

If the stock price is pulled up very high, the funds of the retail investors who follow the trend are not as much as the chips that were originally intended to be sold, what should be done?

It is important to understand one point.

The real "chives" that the main force wants to cut are not the retail investors who have already bought the stocks, but the ones who are preparing to buy the stocks.

Because in the end, the main force wants to leave the market, that is, to convert the chips into money is the key.

Thirdly, the market will eventually move towards high-level game theory.

The market will eventually move towards the game between the main forces, and when the small fish become fewer and fewer, the big fish will start to prey on each other.

The process of high-level game theory will promote the rise of the market.

Because in the end, high-level game theory can only rely on value investment, or make articles based on value investment as a cover.Without any expectations, simply engaging in the game directly and purely, other main forces will not buy into it.

So, ultimately, mature markets all lead to one outcome, which is to seek high-growth stocks for group warmth.

It's a bunch of heavyweights that gather together, driving the rise of the index. The way of the game is the constant transformation between convergence and divergence.

At that time, it's not that there are no retail investors, but they will not affect the market trend, and the main force's target will not be on retail investors.

A-shares are not without the foundation to rise, the overall valuation is still relatively low.

The key to the problem is where the water is and how to pour the water into the market.

And before that, where the chips of the entire market are is particularly crucial.

If the entire market is still dominated by retail investors, the scene of mowing leeks will continue for a long time.

Only when the market enters the next mature stage, and the expectations of most main forces for the market converge, can it be achieved.Compared to the global market, most have quickly completed reforms and the consolidation of chips.

After the further improvement of the system, the A-share market is still one step away, which is the re-concentration of chips.

This is also the so-called "de-individualization" that is often mentioned.

Although some people strongly deny it, believing that how can the market be de-individualized, repeatedly mentioning that individual investors are an important force in the development of the market.

However, the reality is that it is mercilessly "slaughtering" individual investors.

Of course, the way of slaughter is also very simple, that is, to keep the excellent and eliminate the inferior.

The so-called keeping the excellent refers to those qualified investors who have a mature mind and a sound investment concept and system.

Eliminating the inferior is even easier to understand, which is to clear out those individual investors who still do not understand the market and are still engaged in high-risk gambling.

What about those small shareholders of delisted stocks, those individual investors, are they innocent or self-inflicted?

Those individual investors who gamble on shell preservation at one yuan and buy ST against the trend, should they be eliminated?Those retail investors who believe that speculating on loss-making stocks is the mainstream of the market and do not recognize value investing, should they be eliminated?

The market's self-correction indeed requires a certain amount of time and cannot be achieved overnight.

Many of the main forces in the market are also in the process of self-rescue, and at the same time, they are luring retail investors to take over the positions again and again.

Before the market completes the clearance, the bull market will not come, because there is no capital to speculate on what the bull market is.

There is one last point, that is, our market is relatively closed, while the global market is relatively open.

In the A-share market where foreign capital actually accounts for a low proportion and has no say, the way of playing will definitely not be like the global market, which rises through watering.

The so-called indifference is ultimately the answer given by capital after careful consideration.

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