tech

From concept to performance dilemma.

77 Comments 2024-03-30

Topic speculation is a distinctive feature of the A-share market.

However, looking at the global market, in fact, all markets are speculating on topics.

But, the topics of other people's markets, in the end, have submitted their answers, while the topics of our market, in the end, are left with a mess.

Why is it that the topics of A-shares that can be implemented in performance are so few?

Especially in the field of technology, why are those opportunities with great imagination space ultimately difficult to land?

The reasons for this are worth pondering.

First, there is a deliberate trend of speculating on topics.

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The current market for us is a trend, and even an unhealthy trend, for speculating on topics.

What's more deadly is that some listed companies are in collusion with capital to speculate on topics.Especially those on interactive platforms who make false statements to deceive others, and the various behaviors of trying to get attention, really have no lower limit.

Some companies take the collection of concepts as a pleasure, as the underlying logic to increase the company's valuation, and there are even cases where more than a dozen themes are gathered together.

After all, it doesn't cost much money to increase the company's market value, so why not do it.

Those small compositions are also made to hype with the cooperation of funds, which has spoiled the market atmosphere.

Therefore, many themes may just be themes, without any substance.

Some listed companies have no actual business, but they claim to have some relevance with this theme, in order to raise the stock price.

Anyway, after half a year or a year, when the theme is cold, no one will care about the performance issues.

Of course, it is also natural for the stock price to return to the original point after speculation, because there is no substantial change.

Second, the talent reserve of the R&D team is insufficient.

From the emergence of the theme to the final order, production and manufacturing, it is a very long process.In these processes, the most important thing is not the production line, nor the order, but the talent.

Most new concepts are largely derived from technological upgrades.

So, technological upgrades involve research and development, and they involve the issue of talent reserve.

Moreover, the issue of talent reserve is the key to restricting the development of technology and is also an important factor leading to the final inability to fall into reality.

Many concepts, since they are not initiated from our side, it means that overseas has relatively mature technological strength.

And on our side, most companies need a process from receiving new concepts to research and development, and even need to recruit a team.

From the beginning, it has lagged behind others a lot, and the progress is naturally much slower.

If the talent is not ready-made and needs to be cultivated, then this matter is not a reliable thing.

Therefore, many can only stay on the concept in the end, and there is no way to implement it, and this dilemma is unsolvable.

To put it bluntly, without technical strength, there is no diamond drill, and this porcelain work cannot be undertaken.Thirdly, the slow marketization process leads to weak performance.

What is the marketization process? In fact, it is whether the internal demand of the market is sufficient.

Overseas is the integration of the global market, and the process speed is very fast.

The domestic demand market is also very large, but the speed and efficiency of the marketization process are actually a bit slow.

This is because most of the initial order purchases are state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, and their efficiency in assessing the market is relatively slow.

This leads to some enterprises having difficulties at the start.

Why are there many companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board that are listed at a loss? It is because they have mastered certain technologies, but they cannot get enough orders, leading to R&D expenses far exceeding net profit.

In this case, the market can only rely on financing to support, which is a principle.

Many enterprises do not have the strength to simply engage in R&D, and a small number of orders are not enough to support the company, so the performance will naturally be much worse.

The development of some companies starts with a large amount of support from exports, ensuring net profit, and then they can upgrade R&D.How to rapidly enhance the marketization process should be placed on the agenda as soon as possible. Otherwise, from concept to reality, it will always be a step behind. This half step in the long river of technology could be significantly slower. Of course, we will also have some advanced technological innovations that can be at the forefront of the times. If we can quickly drive the internal demand, there is actually a great opportunity to turn the concept into reality.

Fourth, the dilemma and variables of passive development. The so-called passive development refers to the lack of innovation ability, and most concepts originate from the fermentation of the global market. Many of our concepts, in fact, do not come from us; there are mature markets abroad. This will lead to our passive development. For example, AI, which has been very popular in the past two years, we have been doing it for a long time, but it is not the same thing, and the gap is too large. The popularity of the concept indeed brings speculation in the secondary market.However, most concepts have not been reflected in performance, such as large models.

There has been a significant investment in scientific and technological research and development, and large model products have been developed, but there is no profit model at all.

Even the performance of the optical module, which has increased significantly, is driven by the market, and most of the company's orders still come from abroad.

The biggest problem brought by passive development is to look at the color of others.

It's like we have long realized the importance of chips, but it was not until we were sanctioned that we began to catch up.

Before, it was only at the level of crisis awareness, and the development speed was relatively slow.

As a result, a large number of chip stocks have been listed, but only a minority can finally deliver performance.

From concept to landing, and finally to see the essence, it requires a process, but in addition to time, many other things are also needed.

And the reaction of the capital market is to quickly transform imagination into space, and then speculate with vigor.

We will find that those listed companies with substance can indeed walk out of a slow bull pattern.And those listed companies without substance, ultimately, return to where they came from.

 

Some people believe that speculating on themes is not wrong, while others consider it an unhealthy trend.

Regarding this point, I do not wish to make too many comments, as it is meaningless.

Short-term capital has its own considerations and strategies, and long-term capital also has its own trading methods, which do not conflict with each other.

There will naturally be disagreements among everyone regarding themes.

If you do not recognize or understand it, then simply do not engage in it.

From the essence of investment, making money from trends and the growth of listed companies is more relaxed than making money from gambling.

However, the word "growth" implies substance behind it, not valuation, it is about orders, performance, not just small essays.

The information age has fattened those funds that survive on small essays and has also led some entrepreneurs to neglect their main business and indulge in concepts.In the past, mergers and acquisitions were carried out with real gold and silver to enhance concepts. Nowadays, it costs less to just mention on some platforms that one is involved with certain concepts.

For investors, it can only be said that they need to be more vigilant and find real doers in order to invest in quality companies.

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